June 16, 2021

P-P-Playoffs?! ! With apologies to NFL coach Jim Mora, let us take a quick look at the potential path to the playoffs for the New England Free Jacks.

With the top two teams in the conference advancing to the playoffs, there is a definite path for the Free Jacks, but even with four weeks left in the season, getting there requires some pieces to fall into place.

First up, let’s assume the best possible results from the remaining games, with bonus point wins in each of the remaining four games, and denying opponents any consolation points. For simplicity sake, we can look only at the Free Jacks, Rugby United New York, and Rugby Atlanta.

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For RUNY, sitting on 39 points, the remaining five game schedule is as follows: home against Utah, at Toronto, at Free Jacks, and home against both Houston and NOLA. Granting RUNY five pointers against the fading Toronto and Houston sides, and another five points against NOLA would have RUNY at 54, before any points from the Utah or New England games. It is difficult to see RUNY faltering at this stage of the tournament, so catching the New York side might be a stretch.

Rugby ATL currently has 41 points, and has four games left: it plays Houston and Old Glory at home and then Utah and the Free Jacks away. Five points over Houston should be expected, and five more against Old Glory should be do-able for RATL. Utah may or may not need the win in the second to last game of the season, but let us assume they do and deny RATL any points. Similarly in the last game of the season, assume a Free Jacks win and allowing for two consolation bonus points for RATL, would leave RATL with 53 points, one behind the Free Jacks, and likely the best possible outcome for the Free Jacks.

Note I am not even including NOLA here, though NOLA also sits on 34 points and has the benefit of having an extra game, so NOLA is still in the mix for sure. Also I am discounting Old Glory and Toronto, as they are likely too far behind to be anything more than spoilers sat this point.