Having a conversation with myself while waiting for the Free Jacks to lock up the top seed in the east.
Glass Full: “Won’t it be awesome if World Rugby awards the USA the 2031 and 2033 World Cups?”
Hell no: “What, are you serious?”
GF: “Yeah, we should have the decision tomorrow. The US is the only remaining host to be considered in the running, so unless some other countries or group of countries object, it might be ours.”
HN: “I have objections!”
GF: “I have answers, what is your problem?”
HN: “First of all, we don’t have the money to pull off staging something like that, it would cost millions, maybe $500 million! and by the way, do you know that USA Rugby was bankrupt? It lost money on the Wales v South Africa game a couple of years ago, right?”
GF: “No problem, world rugby is going to run it as a partnership so they might even front a lot of the organizational resources and cash.”
HN: “OK, where would it be played? At the high school in New Jersey where Rugby New York plays?”
GF: “There are a couple of dozen cities that have signed a letter of interest, including Boston, New York, LA, Miami, Birmingham…..”
HN: “OK, but where in those cities? Presumably it must be played on grass, right, not turf?”
GF: “Most modern stadiums can swap out turf for grass pretty easily, using giant trays. And they can widen the field as well, so NFL stadia would be possible.”
HN: “You are insane…this will be played in the fall, right? In NFL stadia? Or college stadia? Will they have football lines? How will they schedule around the NFL or College football games? Especially since the rugby tournament generally plays out over six or more weeks.”
GF: “I’m sure it will be possible. MLS locations are in the mix also.”
HN: “Well, that might make more sense. Smaller locations, more might have grass surfaces. You don’t want to be in the Coliseum where it looks like there are 12 people in the stands, even if there is a significant crowd. Gilette looks empty even when there are 25,000 people there. Speaking of crowds, where are they going to come from?”
GF: “well, ballpark numbers, Japan 2019 and France 2023 have some 300,000 international visitors and expect to sell something like three million tickets in total.”
HN: “That’s a lot of potential revenue, I can understand why cities are looking to grab a piece of that pie, especially post Covid. But wait, you said it would cost 500 million to stage the tournament, if you were to try to make that back on ticket sales alone, that would be a ticket cost of $166 per ticket. Yeah, I know there would be TV rights and various other sources of revenue, but that would be a very difficult sell to get people in seats at those prices.”
GF: “As you said yourself, it would not be purely ticket revenue dependent, there are other sources, TV rights probably being the biggest one.”
HN: “Would you get still get 300,000 international visitors, especially with the 2028 Olympics being in LA and the 2026 Soccer World Cup being in the US (and Canada and Mexico). Too much going to the well for the well-heeled international sports fan?”
GF: ”Possible, I guess.”
HN: “The games would have to be on at attractive times for the TV rights be worth a lot to England, France, etc., right? So, a 1PM East coast kickoff would fit nicely for Europe as that would be a 6PM or 7PM start. And that would mean a very early game time in Australia and New Zealand, but that might not be too bad. A 1PM West coast might be ok for Europe and also for the folks down under.”
GF: “see, you are getting on board…..”
HN: “Not yet. The US is an expensive media market. I know, soccer made it work in 1994, and the MLS hadn’t even started, but there were a lot more casual soccer players in the US before that tournament. Lots of central Americans who were passionate about the game too, you wouldn’t have much of that for rugby.
And the media marketplace has fragmented with lots of distractions. It will be a heavy lift to get anyone other than the media partners to get much traction. They will be content to promote some cornhole tournament instead of “football without pads”. And all sport radio want to talk about is NFL, baseball, NFL draft, basketball, NFL rosters, maybe some hockey, NFL coaching, Tom Brady. Nothing else.
I saw that the Denver Post had an announcement on the impending decision. And it accompanied the story with a picture…from a Sevens game. Ouch.”
GF: “I am getting tired of this. Any other negativity to share?”
HN: “Sure thing, I am just getting started.”
GF: “Well, simmer down buddy, it is looking like a done deal, better clear out the spare room for your guests.”